We're Witnessing the Stock Market Do Something for Only the 3rd Time in the Last 100 Years, and History Is Crystal Clear on What's Next for Stocks

• Markets up 8-14% YTD but Shiller P/E near 41 signals high valuation risk. • CAPE Ratio above 40 has preceded major declines three times in a century. • Bear markets average 9.5 months; bull markets last 3.6 times longer. Through Oct. 19, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 8.1-13.7% YTD, driven by AI build-out, strong earnings, IPO euphoria and record buybacks. Yet the S&P 500’s Shiller P/E Ratio, now near 41, has topped 40 only three times in 100 years—each prior instance foreshadowing steep declines. The ratio’s long-term average is 17.44; values above 40 have never been sustained. Historical data show bear markets average 286 days and never exceed 630, while bull markets last 3.6 times longer. For long-term investors, corrections remain the price of admission to equities’ wealth-creation track record.